Q2 2026
Q2 2026 sent a mixed signal: deal count and value cooled from Q1's highs, fundraising had its strongest first half since 2021-22, and exit value appeared to explode, almost entirely on SpaceX's IPO. Strip that outlier out and the market looks as disciplined and concentrated as it's been all year. The same thread from Q1 held: capital keeps piling into a handful of massive AI bets, cybersecurity M&A is consolidating around AI-native defense, and across SaaS the real moat is shifting from features to the proprietary data a company owns. For early-stage investors, the message is unchanged: as AI commoditizes features, the winners will be the ones who can prove what they uniquely know, not just what they can ship.
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