Venture Capital Benchmark Q4 2025

US, Europe, and Latin America

macro

VC Activity

In Q4 2025, global VC deal volume declined across all regions, yet North America’s value surged 32% to 93.7 $B QoQ. While Europe’s deal value dropped by the same percentage, Asia and Latin America saw slight increases in value despite the overall reduction in total deal counts. Geographic concentration remains highly asymmetrical, with the U.S. leading both investment volume and deal size.

Q4 confirmed the continued slowdown in global VC fundraising in 2025, which plummeted 45% across all regions (from $219B in 2024 to $118B in 2025). The US still accounted for 57% of all global funds raised.

Global VC exit value surges 16% in Q4 driven by North American mega-rounds, despite the 10% drop in exit count.

Q4 Trends

US Defense tech of critical infrastructure:

Q4 2025 marked a decisive shift as U.S. anchored defense and security technologies became a strategic priority, with capital flowing into companies directly tied to U.S. defense contracts, sovereign infrastructure, and autonomous warfare capabilities.

Core Defense & Autonomous Warfare:

Capital concentrated into scalable, kinetic defense capabilities, with megarounds on autonomous and weapons systems:

Space goes strategic:

Cybersecurity financing reached
$21B (+52% YoY)

Platforms specializing in Digital Risk Protection—such as Constella Intelligence (a portfolio company), are seeing increased demand for their ability to map threat-actor infrastructure using massive sets of breached identity data.

Q4 2025 marked a historic milestone for European healthtech

As wearables leader Oura highlighted sustained VC appetite across healthtech and biotech.
Tonic Easy Medical, a TheVentureCity portfolio company, is another European healthtech reference point that underlines our view that the region represents a major opportunity:

In Europe, earlier in the year investor attention centered on LLMs and AI infrastructure, but Q4 2025 showed VC investors increasingly prioritizing application layer solutions.

That shift was reflected in major rounds for:
End customers and investors are increasingly aligned on the ROI of application layer products.
Count, a TheVentureCity portfolio company, has prioritized this approach with its recent AI agent launch designed to embed intelligence directly into how teams analyze, collaborate, and make decisions.
Predictions

Looking ahead

The market will continue to reward fundamentals and long-term value creation (based on where capital and exits are moving, future winners are likely to be companies with revenue, resilience, and real technological depth rather than hype-driven growth).
The Era of Physical AI: 2026 will mark the transition from virtual chatbots to Physical AI. Capital is now flowing into "intelligence with a body", autonomous systems, drones, and robotics designed to operate in and protect the real world.
The Agentic ROI Reckoning: As Q4 highlighted a pivot toward Application Layer solutions, the "hype" phase is over. Success in 2026 will be defined by Agentic SaaS, platforms that don't just generate content but deliver measurable ROI by automating end-to-end workflows.

Founder perspective

NO CODE AND NOW AI’S IMPACT ON EXPERIMENTATION

Ryan Hoover, Founder of Product Hunt and Founder/Investor at Weekend Fund, explains what he’s seeing on one of the most popular platforms to share tech products:

“I could speak to how AI infra has become increasingly accessible, following the trend in no code from years prior, that's inspiring an explosion of experimentation and launches on PH.”

Ryan Hoover

Ecosystem builder perspective

WHY THEVENTURECITY BUILT AHA

María Dancausa, product manager at TheVentureCity, describes our approach to building a GenAI product.

Public market takeaways
A gloomy forecast for the economy ends with a rainbow for the stock market

Rewind to this time last year, and the headlines were dark and ominous. They were ablaze with layoff news and economists fueling the fire with warnings of more turbulent times ahead. The questions on everyone’s mind: can the US pull off a soft landing while curbing inflation? How will quantitative tightening impact consumer spending? How will the technology ecosystem weather the storm? 

A few things are clear in hindsight. In the public markets, investors enjoyed a strong end to the year, albeit after a bumpy start. The S&P ended 2023 at +24% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq at +43%. The magnificent seven, comprised of companies that already have some of the largest market cap, smashed it with a 111% YoY growth (Kiplinger). Within this power basket is NVIDIA, the stock everyone wishes they had bought in Q1 2023, which ended up an astonishing 239% over the full year of 2024 (Statista).

Last quarter we reported a brief opening of the IPO market. We remain confident that we will see more companies go public in the back half of 2024 and into 2025, and have noted hundreds of quality candidates detailed in CB Insights’ IPO pipeline of 250+ companies (CB Insights).

Bucking the downward B2C trend we mentioned earlier, Shopify, up 124% YoY, caught our attention. We have always leaned into the e-commerce enabler space, making notable investments such as in our very own Returnly, acquired by Affirm in 2021, so we are excited to see the momentum within this space.