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Venture Capital Benchmark Q4 2023
US, Europe, and Latin America
24
(If) The storm has passed, what comes next?
The venture capital funding landscape has transformed dramatically in the past year. We hold an optimistic view of the future, but we would be remiss without mentioning the sobering stats: 3,200 startups shut down, and 2,700+ funds went quiet in 2023. It seems the entire startup ecosystem is going through a transformation. Venture funds are optimizing their strategy and new venture models are emerging. LP appetite for early-stage tech is in question, and investors are seeking new sources of capital. On the founder side, companies are stalling to fundraise and focusing on capital efficiency, or raising smaller bridge rounds. Going forward, we expect to see both companies and funds raise less capital, and a newfound interest in venture debt.
While both founders and investors struggled to raise capital, AI and climate startups were the exception to the rule. We believe manufactured growth and megarounds are out, and any deals of this nature will go to capital-intensive businesses such as EV, climate, and health. Looking forward to the next big thing, we expect the top entrepreneurs of our times will disrupt antiquated industries that have been overlooked.
Industries like Wealth Tech and Cybersecurity piqued interest, but AI regulations loom with the implementation of The AI Act by EU policymakers. The hope for 2024 is that deal count bounces back up across geographies and stages, that more liquidity is seen through M&A or IPO, and that the founders keep finding value-add VCs to support them on their journey.
Q4 Key Takeaways from TheVentureCity
Deals trending down as Q4 deals done continues to slide
More and more, companies are proving they can do more with less. Capital efficiency has been a requirement of 2023, primarily due to macro dynamics and fewer deals getting done.
Q4 2023 saw a pullback in capital invested and deal count. Collectively the US, Europe, and LatAm regions experienced an 11% decline in capital invested, with $53B invested across 5,800+ deals. While the markets may not have expected the best conditions over the last quarter, the steady decline QoQ does not intimidate us given the overall resilience in 2023 relative to 2019 and 2020.
By zooming out and looking at the annual trendline, surprisingly perhaps for some, 2023 has fared better than pre and peak-pandemic level numbers in our investment regions, mainly driven by a steady uptick in demand for mega deals. Respectively, 2019 and 2020 saw $117B and $156B invested, half of that of 2023.
Yes, but:
Deal count was flat in 2023 compared to 2019 and 2020, meaning round sizes (namely mega rounds) impacted the overall capital invested, as there were fewer deals at the Seed stage.
Ecosystem builder perspective
As an attorney, Daniel Green, Partner at Gunderson Dettmer, brings a unique perspective to our report:
“2023 was the year of the reset. Reset of valuations, reset of expectations, reset of business model focus areas, reset of deal activity. We saw challenging fundraising, growth and liquidity conditions for many companies, with a few exceptions here and there (I am looking at you, AI), and we expect many of these conditions to remain in place for much of 2024. With a reset comes opportunity, of course, and plenty of companies are taking advantage of the current market conditions -- to do buy-side M&A, stock option repricings, re-focus strategic areas and headcount, and launch new businesses with a still robust pre-seed and seed fundraising environment.”
Q4 Major Topics
Now, we move on to the major areas that caught our attention in Q4: VC Reset, B2B>B2C, Shifts in Wealth Tech, Gen AI’s impact on building, Public Markets
Macro Climate for Fundraising: Founders and VCs
First, the harsh reality: 2023 was marked by austerity. It was a reset, plain and simple. Deal counts plummeted from 2022, and the bar to raise capital became increasingly high for both founders and funders. Meanwhile, public and private companies tightened their belts and the US economy narrowly skirted an economic recession, notching some GDP growth.
In line with this correction, bridge rounds and extensions have become ubiquitous. Seed and Series A stage extension rounds were up 38% and 39% in 2023, respectively (State of European Tech).
Tough pill to swallow: 3,200 startups shut down last year, according to Pitchbook. Before winding down, they had raised more than $27B (Business Insider). It’s clear that the startup ecosystem has been shifting over the past couple of years. Sam Lessin of Slow Ventures makes bold conclusions about the VC asset class in his look back on 2023. He asserts that the exuberance of VC investing over the past 20 years hit a wall and that we have closed the chapter on the “VC Factory Line” (Lessin, Docsend), meaning the public markets have little demand for multi-stage firms’ manufactured startup growth and portfolio markup.
VC perspective
Sam Lessin, General Partner at Slow Ventures, tells us about the major changes occurring in the VC world:
“Over the last 20 odd years VC reorganized itself into a 'factory' line. Each stage funded a certain type of 'development' of a company with specific inputs and expected outputs and fed that product to the next stage - taking the markup along the way. But public demand for 'factory farmed' unicorns didn't play out as hoped, and 3,200 startups who raised $27B shut down last year.
Big ass tech platforms are back in style having recovered most of their value, but the VC factory line hasn't come back in the same way - and it won't for a long time. Why? It turns out, you can't manufacture value that way, and the entire startup ecosystem is trying to figure out what metrics are worth what dollars.
For us seed investors, there is a continued distortion of the 'traditional' seed. The market is small, and late-stage investors swamp it with cash. This leads to higher pricing on any reasonable story - creating bad long-term deal dynamics. It also means a bunch of founders and talent get misdirected / sent down the wrong path by over-eager capital. When will this end? Who knows - not anytime soon, and so long as the distortion is in play it means that the run of the mill 'YC style' seed pricing has not corrected / possibly won't. This is a serious and perpetual drag on any 'mainstream' seed investing you might want to do.”
The trendline for funds raised has been falling since 2021. In the US, the National Venture Capital Association reported 474 funds raised. 75% of the capital raised went to established managers, who have continued to grow their fund sizes despite the macro headwinds (NVCA Venture Monitor).
In Europe, 118 funds were raised, and the number of first-time funds slowed to just 38, nearly half of the year prior (Sifted). LatAm experienced the same fate as other regions, reaching record lows in funds and capital raised.
The analysis by Pitchbook and NVCA also points to how value created by start-up exits fell to $61.5B last year, compared to $797B in 2021. In Europe, it was less than €12B across the year, the lowest level for a decade (Financial Times). We are watching this number carefully, and view value created via exits and M&A as a leading indicator for capital being deployed into VC funds. Once liquidity trends back up, faith is restored in the entire ecosystem.
VC perspective
Founding Partner of MBA Ventures, Monica Aznar talks about how the market climate impacted fundraising initiatives
“Last year, we launched MBA Ventures as emerging managers, a global early-stage VC fund and network committed to backing MBA student and alumni founders from top-tier schools. We secured an anchor LP to kickstart our fund. However, we strategically decided to defer our external fundraising initiatives until we had established a robust portfolio of over ten companies. This choice was informed by the current market climate, marked by widespread skepticism towards venture capital, particularly for first-time managers. Our aim was to validate our strong deal flow and showcase a unique niche and access to exceptional founders before initiating external fundraising.
On the founder side, fundraising has also proven to be very challenging recently. Many startups have been forced out of the market due to their inability to secure funding. For those that have persevered, the challenging fundraising landscape has compelled them to adopt a more capital-efficient approach. This shift towards sustainability, with reduced cash burn, is anticipated to yield long-term benefits for these startups in the mid-term and contribute to the overall health of the startup ecosystem.”
Last year, as the market endured a reset, we observed a massive shift towards predictable, high-margin businesses. In short, there was a dearth of consumer-based Seed startups. Once upon a time, any digital platform could position themselves as a technology startup - even eCommerce for example. Turnkey technology solutions leveled the playing field for companies to go to market, and costs to acquire and maintain users’ loyalty has skyrocketed. Now, the focus is on enterprise SaaS. But is it the chicken or the egg? Is the share of consumer startups shrinking, or is investor appetite? We believe it’s a bit of both, and it has all changed quickly over the past decade.
VCs have placed a longstanding focus on software-based businesses to drive outsized returns. Quick-to-market, low capex, scalable (cloud) solutions poised for a global stage were the ingredients that made consumer apps the VC darling for many years. But startups funded during zero interest rate periods (ZIRP startups) were not capital efficient, and many of them are running out of money. Meanwhile, VC dollars into D2C businesses have dropped a whopping 97% (Crunchbase).Consumer-focused funds even strayed from their thesis, enticed by new tech opportunities and a macroeconomic environment rife with inflation and valuation markdowns (Sifted).
Startups are expected to grow rapidly, but without network efforts or a viral product, B2Cs are at the mercy of paid customer acquisition. This is the last place VCs want to fund, especially as the cost of acquiring customers in the B2C realm has surged over the past decade.
But what is next? We see a massive opportunity over the next 5-10 years in the industrial space - the 3rd industrial revolution. The marketing quip of ‘software eating the world’ has taken hold of all the low-hanging fruit – early (consumer) adopters and technology businesses. But just as the unicorn herd of 2023 swung from consumer to enterprise (Cowboy VC), we see another swing coming towards unsexy industries, largely overlooked until now. This next stage of disruption may take longer, but industries such as textile, telecommunications, infrastructure, mining, agriculture and forestry, are ripe for disruption and efficiency gains at every step of the value chain.
Founder perspective
Alan Sternberg, Co-Founder and CEO of Beams, who pivoted from a B2C to B2B AI business provides his take on investors shifting from consumer to B2B
Ecosystem builder perspective
María Dancausa, product manager at TheVentureCity, describes our approach to building a GenAI product.
Rewind to this time last year, and the headlines were dark and ominous. They were ablaze with layoff news and economists fueling the fire with warnings of more turbulent times ahead. The questions on everyone’s mind: can the US pull off a soft landing while curbing inflation? How will quantitative tightening impact consumer spending? How will the technology ecosystem weather the storm?
A few things are clear in hindsight. In the public markets, investors enjoyed a strong end to the year, albeit after a bumpy start. The S&P ended 2023 at +24% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq at +43%. The magnificent seven, comprised of companies that already have some of the largest market cap, smashed it with a 111% YoY growth (Kiplinger). Within this power basket is NVIDIA, the stock everyone wishes they had bought in Q1 2023, which ended up an astonishing 239% over the full year of 2024 (Statista).
Last quarter we reported a brief opening of the IPO market. We remain confident that we will see more companies go public in the back half of 2024 and into 2025, and have noted hundreds of quality candidates detailed in CB Insights’ IPO pipeline of 250+ companies (CB Insights).
Bucking the downward B2C trend we mentioned earlier, Shopify, up 124% YoY, caught our attention. We have always leaned into the e-commerce enabler space, making notable investments such as in our very own Returnly, acquired by Affirm in 2021, so we are excited to see the momentum within this space.
Fundraising by Geography
A sharp deceleration in deal count and a modest decline in invested capital
While capital invested in Q4 remained consistent with what the U.S. experienced most of last year, deal count decelerated sharply. Standing at 3,530 deals done, there was a 14% decline. Capital invested, however, only saw a 6% decline in value at $38B, not a significant change from what we have seen previously.
That being said, this combination of declining deal count and almost unchanged invested capital has caused a marginal improvement in the average round size, which was at $11M in Q4 2023. A decline in deal count could potentially be attributed to startups that were forced to cease operations due to limited funding opportunities in the market.
VC perspective
Luke Skertich, Principal at FJ Labs, one of the most active VC funds globally, shares his take on Seed-stage fundraising dynamics today.
In 2023, we saw an interesting dichotomy between austerity and intemperance. Most seed-stage companies have had their feet held to the fire: they must prove more (early signs of PMF, monetization, scalable economics) with less (limited GTM spend, smaller teams, less burn). Conversely, en vogue categories – AI, and sustainability – have experienced the opposite: high valuations, limited monetization, and high capital intensity. As we have seen in the past, the value in those sectors will accrue to few winning companies and lead to poor performance for overexposed funds.
In 2024, expect to see the Seed and Pre-Seed pace pick up. Investors that deploy dollars to anti-cyclical, sustainable business models where they have a truly unique insight will win big. Personally, I’m most excited for B2B marketplaces models. Investors have seen many failures here and are looking at new players with trepidation, creating a huge opportunity to invest in incredible founders solving unique problems at reasonable prices.
The lowest numbers in over 3 years
Europe only seemed to have had a temporary moment of relief when capital invested saw a spike in Q3.
Numbers in Q4 2023 were at an all-time low compared to the last 3 years, both for capital invested and deal count.
Deal count declined by 15%, totaling 2,040 deals with $13B of capital invested, the lowest amount that has been invested across Europe in at least the last 8 quarters.
The collective declines had little impact over the average deal size which stood at $6.6M, falling 10% behind the jump it experienced in Q3.
VC perspective
Philipp Moehring, Partner Tiny VC, sees a lot of activity in early stage, particularly in AI and AI related companies, as well as defense and treasury management.
Slight, but consistent, increases
If there is any consistency to be found in the last quarter then Latam might be the one to provide it. The meager jumps of 5% in capital invested and 3% in deal count are the only notable increases we see across any region or stage. Deal count moved up from 219 to 225 and capital invested increased from $1.1B to $1.2B in Q4 2023.
Compared to the US and Europe, LatAm fared better in the second half of 2024, making a recovery from its lowest average deal size of $2M in the beginning of the year to $5.5M at the end of 2024.
Fundraising by Stage
Seed
A sluggish Q4
Seed funding saw $4B invested across 1,280 deals, the lowest across the past 8 quarters.
The QoQ decline of 24% in capital invested and 22% in deal count, is the steepest decline that the seed stage has seen in the last year. The sharp reduction at this stage might be reflective of cash-deprived startups that struggled to raise in tough market conditions - needing money to grow and needing growth to raise money. Finally, the average deal size declined 3%, making Q4 2023 the only quarter in the past year that saw a decline in average deal size at the seed stage.
VC perspective
Zann Ali, Partner at 2048 Ventures shared with us his optimistic take on Seed investing. We appreciate his unwavering focus on investing for the future.
“In the face of the pervasive doom and gloom narrative, our enthusiasm for the 2024 startup landscape remains undiminished. It’s early in the year, but we’re seeing a surge in founders raising their first financings.
At the earliest stage, it’s often just two people, a pitch deck, and a healthy dose of optimism. These founders eat ramen noodles, crank code, and sell customers. Largely, they are insulated from broader economic fluctuations (at least for now). And by the time they’re not…well who knows…we don’t have a crystal ball. Remember, the adage that advises against trying to time the market? Why shouldn’t that also hold true for early stage venture? You can’t time when you’re going to bump into the team who will build the next Airbnb, WhatsApp, or Uber (by the way, all of those were founded in 2009, and if I recall correctly, it wasn’t the best of economic times).
Our aim is to invest consistently in early-stage startups that can shape the trajectory of the world we live in. They’re building, and we’re investing, for the future.
SERIES A
Stability is the name of the game
The stability in Series A is reflective of how companies at this stage might still be choosing to raise extension or bridge rounds as opposed to doing a full late-stage financing.
With the Series A stage sitting at a unique point across the funding cycle, its unique nature might have allowed it to maintain stability (for better or worse, which remains open to interpretation) over the last 4 quarters. The QoQ increase of 1% in capital invested and the 3% decrease in deal count results in the average deal value in Q4 being consistent with that of Q3 at $20M.
Series B+
Holding its own through the year
It might be too soon to assume that the worst of the later-stage financing dynamics are behind us. The data show no specific signs of improvement, but it seems to have held its own when looking at the past year as a whole.
Capital invested last quarter decreased 11% from $48B to $43B and deal count decreased 6% from 3,320 to 3,140. The decrease is, however, less alarming than what the stage saw earlier this year, with a drop of 30% in capital invested in the second quarter of 2023.
Editor’s Pick for 2024
The EU is pioneering regulation and global impact
Deepfakes are on notice because in a groundbreaking move, European Union policymakers have introduced the A.I. Act, a comprehensive regulation targeting high-risk AI applications in law enforcement, crucial services, and general-purpose systems. Meant to curb manipulated content generation, such as deepfakes, as well as misinformation, penalties for non-compliance could range anywhere from 7.5 million euros ($8.1 million) or 1.5% of turnover to 35 million euros or 7% of global turnover.
Critics say that European AI startups face concerns over innovation and fundraising compared to American counterparts. However, the Act's influence is expected to accelerate global regulatory frameworks. President Biden's executive order in the US prioritizes AI transparency and standards. The UK plans national AI safety institutes in collaboration with the US after an AI safety summit. (Source: sifted)
While hailed as a regulatory breakthrough, questions linger about its effectiveness, with several provisions expected to take 12 to 24 months to come into effect (an eternity in the breakneck speed of AI) (NYTimes).
Ecosystem builder perspective
Vivek Jayaram, founder at Jayaram Law, talks about the US’s approach, and challenges, of AI regulation.
Finding a home in south Spain (of all places)
Speaking of cybersecurity, we caught up with portfolio founder Luigi Lenguito to learn how Bfore.AI fits into this ecosystem in a recent Founder Spotlight.
Founder perspective
As the founder of a cyber security startup (BforeAI), Luigi Lenguito shares three observations about how 2023 ended for the space.
"2023 in cyber security closed with I think a few very interesting trends. We are seeing a growth of more market solutions that are predictive and preemptive. I think this comes from the realization that given the growth and the volume of the attacks, a pure detection and response and reactive approach to cyber security is failing us. This drives a new review of risk assessment on cyber security posture for companies at different levels.
The second point I'm observing is about the need from the CFO of CISOs and their security team to optimize their budgets. Now some read into that reduction, but I think it's actually working in a slightly different way because CFOs are not asking for that budget back. And so what the CISOs and the security team are doing, they are reinvesting it either in people that they need to either retain or hire or in new solutions.
Last but not least, the CISO job is becoming more and more stressful. I think part of it is due to the increased demand, both coming from more stringent regulations. What we see is that CISOs are starting to have immediate lieutenants, that is the business information security officers is someone that relates with the business, and security architects, who think about what is the optimum infrastructure that we want the company to adopt, not just from, And so when you put these three things together, 2024 is certainly going to be still a year of great change in the industry."
Concluding Thoughts
